Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies

The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August---which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80\% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015

Empresas estrangeiras e capital humano nos serviços intensivos em conhecimento

O efeito das empresas estrangeiras na economia receptora poderá ocorrer através do mercado de trabalho, contribuindo aquelas para o desenvolvimento do capital humano. Este artigo investiga se as empresas estrangeiras contribuíram positivamente para o desenvolvimento do capital humano, analisando o sector dos serviços intensivos em conhecimento em Portugal. A análise empírica baseia-se num painel de empresas no período de 2000 a 2006 construido com dados dos Quadros de Pessoal. Verifica-se que as empresas com participação estrangeira no capital social apresentam, tudo o resto constante, uma maior intensidade de capital humano do que as empresas nacionais

Comparison between CDC and WHO BMI z-score and their relation with metabolic risk markers in Northern Portuguese obese adolescents

Growth-curves are an important tool for evaluating the anthropometric development in pediatrics. The different growth-curves available are based in different populations, what leads to different cut-offs. Pediatric obesity tracks into adulthood and is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. The accurate assessment of a child nutritional status using growth-curves can indicate individuals that are either obese or in risk of becoming obese, allowing an early intervention. Moreover, the association between the data obtained from growth-curves with specific metabolic risk factors further highlights the importance of these charts. This study aimed to evaluate the associations between body mass index z-score (BMIzsc), determined using the growth-curves from the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and from the World Health Organization (WHO), with cardiovascular risk factors, represented here by metabolic syndrome (MS) and insulin resistance (IR) related parameters. The study involved 246 obese adolescents (10-18 years, 122 females). MS was defined according to the International Diabetes Federation. IR was considered for HOMA-IR greater than 2.5

Alimentação e nutrição do lactente

Os autores apresentam os resultados de uma ampla revisão bibliográfica do conhecimento e práticas relativas à alimentação e nutrição do lactente, tendo por base a evidência científica existente e as recomendações dos principais comités de nutrição pediátrica.É sublinhada a importância do aleitamento materno, se possível de modo exclusivo durante os primeiros 6 meses de vida e é referida a evolução da maturação fisiológica e das preferências alimentares associadas à diversificação alimentar.São apresentados os principais dados relativos ao teor dos alimentos em nutrientes, à idade de início da diversifica-ção e ao modo de progressão da alimentação ao longo do primeiro ano de vida. São feitas considerações específicas em relação a grupos especiais de nutrientes, como é o caso dos micronutrientes, bem como no tocante a componentes com interesse para a saúde da criança, cada vez mais usados na alimentação do lactente, como é o caso dos pré e probióticos.As potenciais repercussões para a saúde da alimentação são também referidas, em particular no tocante à prevenção de alergias, risco cardiovascular e doença celíaca. Finalmente são abordados alguns dos aspectos mais relevantes para a alimentação e saúde do lactente ligados a dietas especiais nomeadamente vegetarianas e macrobióticas

Consumo voluntário de quatro genótipos de capim-elefante.

Objetivou-se com o presente trabalho avaliar o consumo de quatro genótipos de capim-Elefante (G1 - CNPGL 91-11-2, G2 - CNPGL 96-27-3, G3 - CNPGL 96-24-1 e G4 - CNPGL 00-1-3) em Belém, Estado do Pará. Foram utilizados como animais experimentais 20 ovinos, machos, da raça Santa Inês, mantidos em gaiolas metabólicas, distribuídos em delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com quatro tratamentos (genótipos de capim-Elefante) e cinco repetições cada. O consumo dos genótipos foi mensurado diariamente, por meio da diferença de peso entre o alimento fornecido e as sobras. Foram determinados os consumos de matéria seca (MS), proteína bruta (PB), extrato etéreo (EE), fibra em detergente neutro (FDN), fibra em detergente ácido (FDA) e carboidratos não fibrosos (CNF). O consumo de MS em g/animal/dia e em g/UTM, diferiu (P0,05) tanto em g/animal/dia como em % peso vivo. A variação genotípica dos materiais genéticos de capim-Elefante avaliados, afeta o consumo de nutrientes como, PB, EE e CNF

Body fat percentage is a major determinant of total bilirubin independently of UGT1A1*28 polymorphism in young obese

OBJECTIVES: Bilirubin has potential antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. The UGT1A1*28 polymorphism (TA repeats in the promoter region) is a major determinant of bilirubin levels and recent evidence suggests that raised adiposity may also be a contributing factor. We aimed to study the interaction between UGT1A1 polymorphism, hematological and anthropometric variables with total bilirubin levels in young individuals. METHODS: 350 obese (mean age of 11.6 years; 52% females) and 79 controls (mean age of 10.5 years; 59% females) were included. Total bilirubin and C-reactive protein (CRP) plasma levels, hemogram, anthropometric data and UGT1A1 polymorphism were determined. In a subgroup of 74 obese and 40 controls body composition was analyzed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. RESULTS: The UGT1A1 genotype frequencies were 49.9%, 42.7% and 7.5% for 6/6, 6/7 and 7/7 genotypes, respectively. Patients with 7/7 genotype presented the highest total bilirubin levels, followed by 6/7 and 6/6 genotypes. Compared to controls, obese patients presented higher erythrocyte count, hematocrit, hemoglobin and CRP levels, but no differences in bilirubin or in UGT1A1 genotype distribution. Body fat percentage was inversely correlated with bilirubin in obese patients but not in controls. This inverse association was observed either in 6/7 or 6/6 genotype obese patients. UGT1A1 polymorphism and body fat percentage were the main factors affecting bilirubin levels within obese patients (linear regression analysis). CONCLUSION: In obese children and adolescents, body fat composition and UGT1A1 polymorphism are independent determinants of total bilirubin levels. Obese individuals with 6/6 UGT1A1 genotype and higher body fat mass may benefit from a closer clinical follow-up.This work was funded by FEDER funds through the Operational Competitiveness Programme – COMPETE and by National Funds through FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia under the project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-028613 (PTDC/DTP-DES/0393/2012). A PhD grant was attributed to H. Nascimento by FCT (SFRH/BD/48060/2008). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Bilirubin is independently associated with oxidized LDL levels in young obese patients

BACKGROUND: Bilirubin can prevent lipid oxidation in vitro, but the association in vivo with oxidized low-density lipoprotein (Ox-LDL) levels has been poorly explored. Our aim is to the association of Ox-LDL with total bilirubin (TB) levels and with variables related with metabolic syndrome and inflammation, in young obese individuals. FINDINGS: 125 obese patients (13.4 years; 53.6% females) were studied. TB, lipid profile including Ox-LDL, markers of glucose metabolism, and levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and adiponectin were determined. Anthropometric data was also collected. In all patients, Ox-LDL correlated positively with BMI, total cholesterol, LDLc, triglycerides (TG), CRP, glucose, insulin and HOMAIR; while inversely with TB and HDLc/Total cholesterol ratio (P < 0.05 for all). In multiple linear regression analysis, LDLc, TG, HDLc and TB levels were significantly associated with Ox-LDL (standardized Beta: 0.656, 0.293, -0.283, -0.164, respectively; P < 0.01 for all). After removing TG and HDLc from the analysis, HOMAIR was included in the regression model. In this new model, LDLc remained the best predictor of Ox-LDL levels (β = 0.665, P < 0.001), followed by TB (β = -0.202, P = 0.002) and HOMAIR (β = 0.163, P = 0.010). CONCLUSIONS: Lower bilirubin levels may contribute to increased LDL oxidation in obese children and adolescents, predisposing to increased cardiovascular risk

Unveiling oxygen vacancy impact on lizardite thermo and mechanical properties

Here, we performed a systematic DFT study assisted by the workflow framework SimStack for the mechanical and thermodynamic properties of the clay mineral lizardite in pristine and six different types of O vacancies configurations. In most cases, the defect caused a structural phase transition in the lizardite from the trigonal (pristine) to the triclinic phase. The results show that oxygen vacancies in lizardite significantly reduce the lattice thermal conductivity, accompanied by an elastic moduli reduction and an anisotropy index increase. Through the P–V relation, an increase in compressibility was evidenced for vacancy configurations. Except for the vacancy with the same crystalline structure as pristine lizardite, the sound velocities of the other vacancy configurations produce a decrease in these velocities, and it is essential to highlight high values for the Grüneisen parameter. We emphasize the great relevance of the punctual-defects introduction, such as O vacancies, in lizardite, since this microstructural design is responsible for the decrease of the lattice thermal conductivity in comparison with the pristine system by decreasing the heat transfer ability, turning lizardite into a promising candidate for thermoelectric materials

Values for preventing influenza-related morbidity and vaccine adverse events in children

BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination recently has been recommended for children 6–23 months old, but is not currently recommended for routine use in non-high-risk older children. Information on disease impact, costs, benefits, risks, and community preferences could help guide decisions about which age and risk groups should be vaccinated and strategies for improving coverage. The objective of this study was to measure preferences and willingness-to-pay for changes in health-related quality of life associated with uncomplicated influenza and two rarely-occurring vaccination-related adverse events (anaphylaxis and Guillain-Barré syndrome) in children. METHODS: We conducted telephone interviews with adult members selected at random from a large New England HMO (n = 112). Respondents were given descriptions of four health outcomes: uncomplicated influenza in a hypothetical 1-year-old child of their own, uncomplicated influenza in a hypothetical 14-year-old child of their own, anaphylaxis following vaccination, and Guillain-Barré syndrome. "Uncomplicated influenza" did not require a physician's visit or hospitalization. Preferences (values) for these health outcomes were measured using time-tradeoff and willingness-to-pay questions. Time-tradeoff questions asked the adult to assume they had a child and to consider how much time from the end of their own life they would be willing to surrender to avoid the health outcome in the child. RESULTS: Respondents said they would give a median of zero days of their lives to prevent an episode of uncomplicated influenza in either their (hypothetical) 1-year-old or 14-year-old, 30 days to prevent an episode of vaccination-related anaphylaxis, and 3 years to prevent a vaccination-related case of Guillain-Barré syndrome. Median willingness-to-pay to prevent uncomplicated influenza in a 1-year-old was $175, uncomplicated influenza in a 14-year-old was$100, anaphylaxis $400, and Guillain-Barré syndrome$4000. The median willingness-to-pay for an influenza vaccination for their children with no risk of anaphylaxis or Guillain-Barré syndrome was $50 and$100, respectively. CONCLUSION: Most respondents said they would not be willing to trade any time from their own lives to prevent uncomplicated influenza in a child of their own, and the time traded did not vary by the age of the hypothetical affected child. However, adults did indicate a willingness-to-pay to prevent uncomplicated influenza in children, and that they would give more money to prevent the illness in a 1-year-old than in a 14-year-old. Respondents also indicated a willingness to pay a premium for a vaccine without any risk of severe complications